The AIADMK campaign has taken a shriller pitch around Jayalalithaa’s 66th birthday, celebrated Monday, with loyalists and fans playing on the date, 24, and the number 66. The government-run Music and Fine Arts University is holding a 66-hour festival; the health department is organising 660 medical camps; and Jayalalithaa planted the first of 66 lakh tree saplings February 21. The PR department has placed LCD screens and photo exhibitions across the state to extol her government; the department of Tamil development last week organised a seminar on Tamil e-books; the transport department held a blood donation drive that has reportedly entered the Guinness Book with over 50,000 participants — all linked to her birthday. The AIADMK has organised kabaddi matches, festivals, seminars and personality development classes. Enterprising businessmen have turned social workers feeding the needy. A well-known fan, Chennai mayor “Saidai” S Duraisamy, has undertaken an expansion of “Brand Amma”. He has launched Amma Canteens for the urban poor, followed by Amma packaged drinking water. In the budget
for Chennai a few days ago, he unveiled cinemas, guesthouses, women’s hostels, weekly markets, computer training, all named Amma. It is now difficult for the common man not to be touched by Amma.
Panneerselvam himself announced Amma Pharmacies in this budget. The sycophancy apart, there is hard-nosed politicking in the exercise. Just as there is no noticeable wave of dissatisfaction against Jayalalithaa’s administration, there is no major unifying thread either. The PM pitch is helping energise the AIADMK cadre. At present, though, what is helping Jayalalithaa the most is the muddle in the rival camps. The DMK is yet to resolve its sibling rivalry, the DMDK cannot decide between the Congress and the BJP, and the BJP cannot finalise an agreement with the MDMK and the PMK.Tamil Nadu has 39 seats and Puducherry one, and Jayalalithaa will share at best share two or three with the CPM and the CPI. Other than the BJP and the Congress, only a party from Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) or Bengal (42) can realistically hope to win more seats than Jayalalithaa, with the competition expected to be tighter in the other large states: Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. And even UP is predicted to be split at least three ways. Her maximum target of 36 may look too small compared to the 272 majority mark, but H D Deve Gowda did become PM in 1996 with 46 in the Janata Dal’s kitty. But all these predictions will depend on variables such as the Congress faring poorly and the BJP underperforming but winning enough in UP to undercut the chances of the SP and the BSP. Things could go wrong also with the federal front of which Jayalalithaa is part.
At the same time, a fact to remember is that 36, the number Jayalalithaa is looking at, is twice the best she has ever managed.
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